Feb. 22, 2012

Game notes

The Montana women's basketball team will play its final home game of the season Saturday when it hosts Montana State. The Lady Griz and Bobcats will tip off at 2 p.m. at Dahlberg Arena.

Where they stand: Montana (15-11, 8-5 BSC) is tied for fourth in the Big Sky Conference standings with Northern Colorado (16-10, 8-5 BSC). Montana State (17-9, 9-5 BSC) is alone in third, just a half game up on the Lady Griz and Bears.

Those three teams, along with first-place Idaho State (20-6, 12-1 BSC) and second-place Eastern Washington (16-10, 10-3 BSC), have locked up five of the six spots for the three-day, six-team Big Sky Conference tournament, which begins two weeks from Thursday at either Pocatello, Idaho, or Cheney, Wash.

For a more complete breakdown of the Big Sky standings and tournament possibilities, see the Poll de Force below.

What's at stake: 1) In-state bragging rights. 2) With just two weeks of regular-season games remaining, Saturday's result at Dahlberg Arena and other results from around the league will have a large impact on positioning in the final regular-season standings and ultimately tournament seeding.

The winner of Saturday's game will keep alive the slim chance that it could move up the standings to the favored No. 2 position by season's end and get a bye to the semifinal round of the tournament.

The dust will soon be clearing: Five of the Big Sky Conference's nine teams will have just a single game remaining once Saturday's games have been completed. With two games Thursday -- featuring both first-place ISU and second-place EWU -- and four more Saturday -- including the delicious ISU at EWU matchup -- questions like, Who is hosting the tournament? and Who is the sixth team that will be filling out the tournament field? could be answered. Or it could come down to the final Saturday.

If you can't make it to Dahlberg Arena: Saturday's game will be broadcast in the Missoula area on KPAX and statewide on the Montana Television Network, with Ted Dawson, sports director of Bozeman's KBZK, on the play-by-play and Derek Buerkle, sports director of Missoula's KPAX, providing color commentary.

Tom Stage and Dick Slater will handle the radio coverage on KENR 107.5 FM, and Shaun Radley and Krista Pyron will cover the Big Sky TV broadcast. GoGriz.com will offer live stats.

The first meeting: With three weeks of reflection and study, it's been determined that the teams' first meeting was 60 percent Montana winning and 40 percent Montana State giving the game away. The Lady Griz rallied from a 38-32 deficit in the final 10 minutes to win at Worthington Arena for the fourth straight year, 61-54.

Montana State went up 38-32 with 15:28 remaining in the second half. With Montana mired in a seven-minute scoreless drought, the Bobcats missed their next nine shots when they had a golden opportunity to extend their lead to perhaps a decisive margin.

The Lady Griz scored 32 points the first 30 minutes, then closed with a flourish. They shot 58.8 percent the final 10 minutes and scored 29 points, going 5 for 7 from 3-point range.

Alyssa Smith hit three of those treys in the final 3:36, and Torry Hill's three with 1:07 left was the game's deciding basket.

MSU's Katie Bussey scored a Big Sky-record 41 points two days before the teams' first meeting in the Bobcats' upset victory at Idaho State. She did not score in the opening 17 minutes against Montana and totaled just nine points on 3-of-17 shooting.

A common path: Montana and Montana State have had similar results their last two games. Both lost their last home game on Feb. 11, with the Lady Griz falling to Northern Colorado, 56-54 in overtime, the same afternoon the Bobcats were losing to Sacramento State, 77-76.

Both teams rebounded with expected but never-to-be-taken-for-granted road wins last Thursday. Montana won at Weber State, 62-52, Montana State won at Northern Arizona, 83-78.

Montana-Montana State, by the numbers:

83 -- The number of times Montana coach Robin Selvig will have faced Montana State by the end of Saturday's game.

.817 -- Selvig's winning percentage (67-15) against the Bobcats in the first 82 meetings.

8 -- Number of days off for both teams since their last game.

0 -- The number of times a conference opponent has won at Missoula three consecutive seasons. Montana State has won its last two games at Dahlberg Arena: 72-69 last season and 77-73 in 2009-10.

.462 -- Montana State's shooting percentage from 3-point range (10 for 19 in 2009-10 and 8 for 20 last season) in its two recent wins at Montana.

1,148 -- Days (from Saturday) since the home team has won a game in the series. The road team has won the last six meetings. Montana's 95-75 win Jan. 3, 2009, at Dahlberg Arena was the last time a home team won.

90 -- Previous meetings between Montana and Montana State on record, dating back to 1974-75. The Lady Griz hold a 70-20 advantage.

33 -- Uniform number of Tianna Ware, who will be playing her final home game Saturday. Ware, who has scored 85 career points in 74 games played, is the lone senior on this year's team.

242 -- Career 3-pointers for MSU's Katie Bussey. She became the Big Sky Conference career leader in that category in Thursday's win at Northern Arizona. Montana's active career leader is Torry Hill with 84.

85 -- Points needed by Katie Baker to become Montana's 28th 1,000-point scorer. Since Montana as a team only averages 61.8 points per game, it is doubtful Baker will reach 1,000 career points Saturday.

More on Montana: The Lady Griz have not won or lost more than two consecutive games during Big Sky Conference play. ... Katie Baker scored a career-high 26 points on 10-of-16 shooting last Thursday in Montana's road win at Weber State. ... Baker has gone 5 for 7 from 3-point range that last four games. ... Kenzie De Boer has picked off 10 steals the last three games. ... If Torry Hill and Jordan Sullivan get their shooting performances in sync, watch out. Hill averaged 15.3 points on 50.0 percent shooting over a six-game stretch leading up to Montana's home loss to Northern Colorado. In the team's last two games she has gone 4 for 27 and scored a total of 11 points. Sullivan was on a 4-for-24 stretch leading up to the Northern Colorado game. She shot 9 for 12 against Northern Colorado and Weber State. ... Hill matched a career high with seven assists against Weber State, Sullivan scored a career-high 15 points.

Upcoming: Montana will close out its regular season with a road trip to Portland State and Northern Arizona next week. The Lady Griz will face the Vikings at 8 p.m. (MT) next Thursday at Portland, Ore., and the Lumberjacks at 6:30 p.m. next Saturday at Flagstaff, Ariz.

Big Sky Conference Poll de Force (week eight)

With only two weeks of Big Sky Conference games remaining, here is what we know:

* The three-day, six-team Big Sky tournament will be held at either Pocatello, Idaho, or Cheney, Wash. Everybody else is making travel arrangements.

* Idaho State (12-1 BSC), Eastern Washington (10-3), Montana State (9-5), Northern Colorado (8-5) and Montana (8-5) are all in the tournament.

* Idaho State can finish no worse than second. Eastern Washington could win the title outright or slide all the way down the standings into a tie for fourth.

* Montana State, Northern Colorado and Montana could all move up and finish in second place. The Bears and Lady Griz could also finish as low as sixth.

* The tournament's sixth team is going to be either Portland State (5-7) or Sacramento State (5-9).

* Northern Arizona (3-11) and Weber State (0-14) are out of the running for the tournament.

1. Idaho State (20-6, 12-1 BSC)
Remaining schedule: at SAC (2.23), at EWU (2.25), EWU (3.3)

Best case: The Bengals win at Sacramento State Thursday, then take any suspense out of who is going to host the tournament with a tight win at Cheney Saturday. ISU beats Montana and Northern Colorado in the tournament on its home floor and makes its first NCAA tournament since 2007.

Worst case: Sacramento State stays hot and knocks off the Bengals Thursday. ISU then plays listlessly in a surprisingly lopsided loss at Cheney Saturday afternoon. In a winner-take-all rematch against the Eagles the following Saturday, Idaho State losses its third straight and gives away hosting rights.

2. Eastern Washington (16-10, 10-3 BSC)
Remaining schedule: PSU (2.23), ISU (2.25), at ISU (3.3)

Best case: The Eagles hand floundering Portland State its eighth loss in 10 games Thursday, then rout Idaho State Saturday when Brianne Ryan lays a Katie Bussey-type performance on the Bengals with 42 points. She betters that with 44 points the following Saturday to give EWU the regular-season title.

Worst case: Portland State finally figures out how to take advantage of its four-guard lineup and upsets the Eagles Thursday night. EWU then continues its susceptibility to in-your-jersey, man-to-man defense in a loss to Idaho State Saturday. Ryan goes 2 for 19 in a tournament quarterfinal loss.

3. Montana State (17-9, 9-5 BSC)
Remaining schedule: at UM (2.25), at WSU (3.3)

Best case: The Bobcats win at Dahlberg Arena for the third straight season Saturday, then make Weber State 0-16 on the final Saturday. In the meantime everyone else is losing, and the well-rested Bobcats, who have played just three games in three weeks, take the No. 2 seed to the tournament at Pocatello.

Worst case: The Bobcats give up a 19-point, second-half lead and lose at Montana Saturday, then watch Weber State go 15 for 26 from 3-point range to pick up their first league win. MSU, rusty after having only three games in three weeks, loses to the Lady Griz in a quarterfinal game to finish 0-3 against its in-state rivals.

4. Northern Colorado (16-10, 8-5 BSC)
Remaining schedule: at WSU (2.25), at NAU (2.27), PSU (3.3)

Best case: The Bears take care of business against three teams below them in the standings and finish 11-5 and alone in second place to earn a bye to the tournament semifinals. Montana State knocks off host Idaho State in the semifinals and gives UNC a neutral road to the NCAA tournament.

Worst case: The Wildcats rise up Saturday for their first Big Sky win, the Lumberjacks run away and win by 13 when Northern Colorado can't handle the Ogden-to-Flagstaff road trip, and the Vikings win at Greeley, after which coach Jaime White chases the officials and is suspended for the tournament.

5. Montana (15-11, 8-5 BSC)
Remaining schedule: MSU (2.25), at PSU (3.1), at NAU (3.3)

Best case: Montana finishes the season sweep of Montana State Saturday, then shuts down Portland State and Northern Arizona, two teams playing like they want their season to be over. The Lady Griz duplicate last year's upset of the host team in the tournament championship game at Pocatello.

Worst case: Montana State wins at Dahlberg Arena for the third straight season Saturday, then Montana watches everyone else win out to give the Lady Griz the No. 5 tournament seed. Montana faces No. 4 Northern Colorado in a quarterfinal game in front of 62 fans at Pocatello and shoots 26.1 percent.

6. Sacramento State (10-17, 5-9 BSC)
Remaining schedule: ISU (2.23), at PSU (2.25)

Best case: The Hornets get hot from 3-point range and upset Idaho State Thursday, then win at Portland State Saturday to win their fourth straight game and get the important head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings. Sac State makes its second tournament in coach Jamie Craighead's three seasons.

Worst case: The Hornets go 3 for 31 from 3-point range against Idaho State Thursday and lose at Portland State Saturday in its final regular-season game -- both by 20-plus points -- to miss the tournament for the 12th time in the last 15 seasons.

7. Portland State (13-12, 5-7 BSC)
Remaining schedule: at EWU (2.23), SAC (2.25), UM (3.1), at UNC (3.3)

Best case: Finally start playing like the preseason favorite and knock off the Eagles Thursday, then the Hornets Saturday to claim the final tournament spot. Win three times in three days at Pocatello, beating Montana in the championship game to avenge last year's title-game loss to the Lady Griz.

Worst case: Watch Eastern Washington's Carrie Ojeda take advantage of PSU's soft interior with a 19-point, 13-rebound game Thursday, then stand around while Sac State's Kylie Kuhns has a 24-point, 21-rebound effort Saturday. The season ends with a 2-11 stretch, and the Vikings become the first preseason favorite in Big Sky history not to make the postseason tournament.

8. Northern Arizona (8-19, 3-11 BSC)
Remaining schedule: UNC (2.27), UM (3.3)

Best case: Northern Arizona rediscovers whatever it was that led to its 38-point win over Sac State last month and knocks off both Northern Colorado and Montana. Coach Laurie Kelly convinces the nation's top two unsigned high school players that Flagstaff is the right place for them.

Worst case: The team that is averaging 257 fans per home game sees that drop even lower with a sparsely attended Monday night game against Northern Colorado. With fresh powder at Arizona Snowbowl, leading scorer Amy Patton choses a Saturday ski trip over facing the Lady Griz defense.

9. Weber State (2-25, 0-14 BSC)
Remaining schedule: UNC (2.25), MSU (3.3)

Best case: The Wildcats win one of their final two games to get off the schneid. With a year to learn Bethann Ord's system, WSU goes from 3-26 this season to 21-7 next season and breaks Valparaiso's NCAA record of a 17-win improvement from one season to the next.

Worst case: Weber State losses to both Northern Colorado and Montana State and finishes 0-16 to become the Big Sky's first winless team since Sacramento State a decade ago. AD Jerry Bovee suspends the program from a year and uses the money to convince Damian Lillard to return for his senior season.